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Thursday on Wall Street, the S&P 500 added 0.4% to 4,894.16 and set a record for a fifth straight day. IBM helped lead the market with a gain of 9.5% after it reported a better profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The electric-vehicle maker reported earnings and revenue that fell short of forecasts and warned of lower sales growth this year. Such a resilient economy should drive profits for companies, which are one of the main inputs that set stock prices. On the losing end of Wall Street, Humana tumbled 11.7% after the insurer reported worse results for the end of 2023 than expected.
Persons: ” Robert Carnell, Seng, Tesla, , Jamie Cox Organizations: TOKYO, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, ING, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, IBM, U.S ., Federal Reserve, Harris Financial, Treasury, . American Airlines, Humana, New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent Locations: U.S, Asia, Pacific, Shanghai, Australia, Wall
Asia shares start Dec on cautious note, oil nurses losses
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.5% after a surge of 7.3% last month, the most since January. The Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation - the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - stood unchanged for October, while consumer spending also pulled back. Fed funds futures imply rate cuts of 115 basis points. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes slipped 3 basis points in Asia to 4.3264%, on top of a plunge of 52.2 basis points for the month. Two-year Treasury yields fell 4 basis points to 4.674%.
Persons: Tyrone Siu, sharemarkets, HSI, Rodrigo Catril, Jerome Powell's Q, Waller, Robert Carnell, Christopher Waller, Treasuries, Stella Qiu, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Tyrone, Rights, Japan's Nikkei, National Australia Bank . Regional, Federal, Traders, ING, Fed, South Korean, Philippine, Brent, West Texas, Thomson Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, Europe, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, South
Tokyo and Hong Kong fell while Shanghai, Seoul and Sydney gained. U.S. futures and oil prices edged higher. Meanwhile, the broader economy has remained strong enough in the face of rising interest rates and inflation to avoid a recession. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong slipped 0.8% to 17,381.14. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which influences interest rates on mortgages and other loans, fell to 4.38% from 4.47% late Friday.
Persons: ” Robert Carnell, Min Joo Kang, Sensetime, Grizzly, Kospi, Australia's Organizations: Sydney, Conference, FactSet, Federal, Federal Reserve, U.S, ING Economics, Nikkei, Grizzly Research, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent, Investors, U.S . Locations: BANGKOK, Asia, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, China
BANGKOK (AP) — Shares declined Friday in Asia, with Hong Kong's benchmark retreating on selling of property shares following recent gains. Japan reported its consumer inflation rose for the first time in four months, with big gains in food prices and hotel rates as tourism has soared. Political Cartoons View All 1265 ImagesChinese shares fell back after recent gains driven by expectations of more government support for debt-burdened property developers. On Thursday, European shares edged higher in thin trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 edged 0.2% higher to 7,483.58.
Persons: ” Robert Carnell, Min Joo Kang, Korea's, Germany’s DAX Organizations: , Bank of, ING Economics, Nikkei, CAC, Dow, Nasdaq, Black, Walmart, Saks Fifth, Federal, New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent, U.S Locations: BANGKOK, Asia, Japan, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Australia, Bangkok, Paris
TOKYO (AP) — Japan’s economy slipped into a contraction in the third quarter, decreasing at an annual pace of 2.1% as consumption and investments shrank, the government reported Wednesday. The third quarter's performance was far worse than what had been expected, according to the financial services company ING, which had forecast an annual contraction of 0.5%. Political Cartoons View All 1247 ImagesPrivate consumption shrank an annualized 0.2% during the quarter, while corporate investment decreased 2.5%. Economic activity in the previous two quarters got a boost from recovering exports and inbound tourism. Public demand, which includes government spending, rose at an annual pace of 0.6% in the latest quarter.
Persons: ” Robert Carnell, ING's, Fumio Kishida, ___ Yuri Kageyama Organizations: TOKYO, ING, Auto, Bank of Japan Locations: Asia, Pacific, Japan
Stock prices fell in Hong Kong, Bangkok and Mumbai and rose in Tokyo, Seoul and Shanghai. U.S. futures slipped and oil prices edged higher. American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines were also toward the front of the market, each gaining more than 2% as oil prices continued to drop and ease the pressure on fuel costs. A recent sharp drop in oil prices has relieved some inflationary pressure, raising the likelihood the Fed might hold rates steady instead of raising them further. The price for a barrel of U.S. crude oil has fallen from above $90 to back to where it was in July, and it dropped another $2.04 to settle at $75.33 on Wednesday.
Persons: ” Robert Carnell, disinflation, , Hang Seng, Fumio Kishida, Eli Lilly, Jerome Powell, Brent Organizations: ING Economics, Nikkei, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Warner Brothers Discovery, Federal, New York Mercantile Exchange, Brent, U.S Locations: BANGKOK, Asia, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Mumbai, Tokyo, Seoul, Shanghai . U.S, China, Shanghai, Australia, Israel
Hong Kong CNN —Consumer prices in China fell more than expected last month, sliding the country back into deflation and renewing concerns about the strength of the world’s second largest economy. As China’s most consumed meat, pork has an outsized weighting in the consumer price index. He said deflation was a “pernicious” situation characterized by a decline in consumer prices as well as the prices of assets and wages, leading to a sharp slowdown in economic activity. But consumer prices recovered in August. This drop “reflects uncertainty around the solidity of China’s recovery,” HSBC Greater China economist Erin Xin noted in a report.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Robert Carnell, , Erin Xin Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, National Bureau of Statistics, Economics, Asia Pacific, ING, ” HSBC Locations: China, Hong Kong
Political Cartoons View All 1211 ImagesThe futures for the S&P 500 and Dow industrials were up less than 0.1%. On Monday on Wall Street, the S&P 500 climbed 1.1% for its best day since the Oct. 7 surprise attack on Israel by Hamas. Financial markets have a history of weakening initially after a geopolitical shock, such as a war, only to revert to longer-term fundamentals. FactSet estimates that earnings per share at S&P 500 companies likely rose 0.4% in the last quarter from a year earlier. Shares of Lululemon jumped 10.3% in their first trading session after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the apparel company will join its widely tracked S&P 500 index.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Dow industrials, Antony, Blinken, ” Robert Carnell, Nicholas Mapa, Brent, , Mark Hackett, Johnson, Tesla, Charles Schwab, Dow Organizations: CAC, Nikkei, Hamas, Dow, Nasdaq, ING Economics, New York Mercantile Exchange, Treasury, Financial, Nationwide, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Activision Blizzard, Microsoft, U.S Locations: BANGKOK, East, Paris, Asia, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Australia, Thailand, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Iran
"There's increasing evidence that the cyclical upturn in the global electronics sector is driving a bottoming-out of global trade and China's trade data is the latest sign," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Reuters GraphicsSouth Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China's imports, fell at their slowest pace in 11 months in September. Semiconductors make up the bulk of their trade, signalling improving appetite among Chinese manufacturers for components to re-export in finished goods. However, Lv Daliang, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs, said at a press conference on Friday that China's trade still faces a complex and severe external environment. Overall, though, total merchandise imports fell at a slower pace, down 6.3%, reflecting a gradual recovery in domestic demand.
Persons: Smart, David Kirton, Xu Tianchen, it's, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Zou Lan, Premier Li Qiang, Li, Robert Carnell, Kevin Yao, Albee Zhang, Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill Organizations: Trade, REUTERS, Economist Intelligence Unit, Reuters Graphics South, Semiconductors, Administration of Customs, ASEAN, Federal Reserve, China Economics, Capital Economics, People's Bank of, Premier, Bloomberg, ING, Thomson Locations: Qianhai, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China, BEIJING, United States, Europe, Stocks, People's Bank of China, Beijing, Asia, Pacific
"There's increasing evidence that the cyclical upturn in the global electronics sector is driving a bottoming-out of global trade and China's trade data is the latest sign," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Reuters GraphicsSouth Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China's imports, fell at their slowest in 11 months in September. Global trade activities, represented by the Baltic Dry Index, also reported notable growth in September. However, Lv Daliang, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs, said at a press conference earlier on Friday that China's trade still faces a complex and severe external environment. China's crude oil imports in September grew nearly 14% from a year earlier, while copper imports fell 5.8% year-on-year.
Persons: Smart, David Kirton, Xu Tianchen, it's, Robert Carnell, Albee Zhang, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Trade, REUTERS, Economist Intelligence Unit, Reuters Graphics South, Semiconductors, Global, Administration of Customs, ASEAN, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, ING, Thomson Locations: Qianhai, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China, BEIJING, United States, Europe, Stocks, Beijing, Asia, Pacific
“There’s increasing evidence that the cyclical upturn in the global electronics sector is driving a bottoming-out of global trade and China’s trade data is the latest sign,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. South Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China’s imports, fell at their slowest pace in 11 months in September. However, Lv Daliang, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs, said at a press conference earlier on Friday that China’s trade still faces a complex and severe external environment. Yet, authorities can take some comfort from recent data including upbeat factory activity and retail sales while the past Golden Week holiday travel edged up 4.1% from pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Most analysts have been reiterating in recent months that policymakers will need to go further than introducing piecemeal measures in order to bolster the economic recovery.
Persons: , Xu Tianchen, Headwinds, it’s, Robert Carnell, Organizations: Beijing Reuters —, Economist Intelligence Unit, Semiconductors, Global, Administration of Customs, Bloomberg, ING Locations: Beijing, China, Asia, Pacific
TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares declined Wednesday as markets awaited a decision on interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Trade data for Japan showed exports fell 0.8% last month from a year ago, marking the second straight month of declines, as exports to China lagged, dropping 11%. Markets have see-sawed for weeks on uncertainty about whether the Fed is done with its market-shaking hikes to interest rates. The Fed began its latest meeting on interest rates Tuesday, with an announcement scheduled for Wednesday. Traders are split on whether the Fed may raise rates again this year, but they’re largely expecting the Fed to begin cutting rates next year.
Persons: Australia's, Robert Carnell, they’re, homebuilders, Brent Organizations: TOKYO, Federal Reserve, Nikkei, Finance Ministry, ING, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Fed, Wednesday, Traders, Instacart, Walt Disney Co, U.S . Steel, United, Detroit’s Big, Ford, General Motors, UAW, New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S Locations: Hong, Shanghai, Japan, China, U.S, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Beijing
Hong Kong CNN —Factory activity in China contracted for a fifth straight month in August, adding pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus measures to bolster the faltering economy. It was the third straight month that the index had improved from the previous month, and was better than economists were expecting. The non-manufacturing PMI, which measures business activity in services and construction, stood at 51 this month, down from 51.5 in July, according to the NBS. “The PMI surveys suggest a slight improvement in economic activity in August,” wrote analysts from Capital Economics. Some of these moves may have started to bear fruit this month, analysts said.
Persons: , Si Wei, Robert Carnell Organizations: Hong Kong CNN — Factory, government’s National Bureau of Statistics, PMI, NBS, Capital Economics, ING Group, Capital Locations: Hong Kong, China, Beijing, , Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, Asia, Pacific
The nation's manufacturing activity shrank for the fifth straight month, the latest data show. Economists have slashed their China growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024. The latest reading for the nation's manufacturing purchasing managers' index, or PMI, came in at 49.7 — below the 50 level that divides expansion and contraction. AdvertisementAdvertisementBut these measures have fallen short of the massive amount of stimulus it would take to revive its ailing industries – including its enormous, debt-ridden property sector. China's property sector makes up about 30% of the country's overall output.
Persons: Robert Carnell Organizations: Service, PMI, Reuters, ING Group, Bloomberg Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing
Nomura analysts were equally downbeat on China's economic outlook. Most economists see downside risk to Chinese growth but they don't expect a recession. It was the slowest growth since December 2022, and shows just how much of a challenge authorities face as they try to make consumption the key driver of future economic growth. MORE STIMULUSAsian stocks stalled at one-month lows, the yuan hit a 9-month nadir while the dollar held broadly firm after the weak Chinese data and latest policy easing measures. But we do need to lower our expectations for China's growth."
Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Nomura, Nie Wen, Robert Carnell, Liangping Gao, Albee Zhang, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Capital Economics, Retail, Hwabao Trust, Investment, Reuters, ING, NBS, Nomura, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China, Asia, Pacific
Oil edges up as China cuts policy rates to support economy
  + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Muyu Xu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A VLCC oil tanker is seen at a crude oil terminal in Ningbo Zhoushan port, Zhejiang province, China May 16, 2017. Prices turned higher after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the rate on 401 billion yuan ($55.3 billion) in one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions by 15 basis points to 2.5%. Despite the weak macroeconomic data, China's oil appetite showed resilience. The declining U.S. output could exacerbate global oil supply tightness as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, cut production. Reporting by Muyu Xu and Katya Golubkova; Editing by Sonali Paul and Tom HogueOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Stringer, Robert Carnell, refiners, Muyu Xu, Katya Golubkova, Sonali Paul, Tom Hogue Organizations: REUTERS, Garden Holdings, SINGAPORE, Brent, . West Texas, People's Bank of China, ING Bank, Energy, of, Petroleum, Thomson Locations: Ningbo Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China, Beijing, Asia Pacific, OPEC
Oil steadies as China data sours sentiment
  + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Natalie Grover | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A VLCC oil tanker is seen at a crude oil terminal in Ningbo Zhoushan port, Zhejiang province, China May 16, 2017. REUTERS/Stringer /File PhotoCompanies Country Garden Holdings Co Ltd FollowLONDON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Oil prices stabilised on Tuesday as sluggish Chinese economic figures were countered by Beijing unexpectedly cutting key policy rates for the second time in three months. China's industrial output and retail sales data on Tuesday showed the economy slowed further last month, intensifying pressure on already faltering growth and prompting authorities to cut key policy rates to shore up activity. In an effort to shore up support, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the rate on 401 billion yuan ($55.3 billion) in one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions by 15 basis points to 2.5%. Still, sentiment on China is souring, added PVM's Evans.
Persons: Stringer, galvanise, John Evans, Robert Carnell, refiners, PVM's Evans, Natalie Grover, Muyu Xu, Katya Golubkova, Tom Hogue, Jason Neely Organizations: REUTERS, Garden Holdings, Brent, . West Texas, of, Petroleum, People's Bank of China, ING Bank, Thomson Locations: Ningbo Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China, Beijing, Saudi Arabia, Russia, OPEC, Asia Pacific
Fiscal stimulus, for instance, amounted to just a third of the aid offered in the United States, with no nationwide cash handouts. “A comprehensive policy mix — covering monetary and fiscal stimulus, including infrastructure, property, and consumption, alongside structural reforms,” would be helpful to rebuild confidence, they said. It was seen as a success and helped boost Beijing’s domestic and international political standing as well as China’s economic growth, which soared to more than 9% in the second half of 2009. China’s debt woes have only deepened during the Covid-19 pandemic, when three years of draconian restrictions and a real estate downturn drained the coffers of local government. “An infrastructure-led fiscal stimulus would need to be much bigger to have the same economic impact,” she said.
Persons: they’ve, , Robert Carnell, Craig Singleton, Alicia Garcia, Herrero, China “, wouldn’t, Zhu Min, Garcia, Xi Jinping, Derek Scissors, Singleton, Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, CNN, ING Group, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Manufacturers, Asia Pacific, UBS Global Wealth Management, International Monetary Fund, Bloomberg, American Enterprise Institute Locations: Hong Kong, China, Asia, Pacific, Washington, , Beijing, United States, China’s, Tianjin
Hong Kong CNN —China is preparing to announce new stimulus for its stumbling economy after the vast factory sector contracted for a fourth straight month, and a gauge of activity in its services sector slipped to a seven month low. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures activity level in the manufacturing sector, came in at 49.3 in July, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. That result was slightly up compared with 49 in June but the index has nonetheless contracted each month since April. The official non-manufacturing PMI, which looks at activities in the services and construction industries, fell to 51.5 from 53.2 in June. “China’s official PMI data provides little encouragement that the economy is turning the corner,” said Robert Carnell, regional head of research for Asia-Pacific at ING Group.
Persons: Stringer, , , Robert Carnell, Xi Jinping, Carnell Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau, Statistics, PMI, Getty, ING Group, National Development, Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry, Information Technology, State, Information, Ministry of Commerce, Capital Economics Locations: Hong Kong, China, Beijing, Hangzhou, China's, Zhejiang, AFP, Asia, Pacific
Slowing Australia Q2 inflation lessens rate hike pressure
  + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
In the first quarter, inflation was at 1.4%. That was balanced by a sharp fall in goods inflation, which slowed to an annual rate of 5.8% from 7.6% the quarter before. Adelaide Timbrell, senior economist at ANZ, said both headline and trimmed mean inflation are tracking below the RBA's forecast for the second quarter. "(The data) highlight that a 4.1% cash rate may be restrictive enough to bring inflation down. The RBA has warned that some further tightening may be required to bring inflation to heel.
Persons: Robert Carnell, Carnell, Adelaide Timbrell, Stella Qiu, Wayne Cole, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Wednesday, ING, ANZ, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, Asia, Pacific
China posted GDP growth of 6.3% in the second quarter of 2023, badly missing expectations. Even so, China is unlikely to unleash major stimulus measures to boost the economy because it's already in so much debt. And while the GDP did grow year-on-year, it bears noting that the comparison is with a low base from last year when China's economy was battered by on-off COVID-19 restrictions. "There are growing hopes for 'big bang' stimulus to fire up China's growth," Vishnu Varathan, the head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank, wrote in a Monday note before China's second-quarter GDP release. The inherent risk with such high debt levels is that a default threatens a domino impact on the Chinese economy — and even the world.
Persons: Vishnu Varathan, China's, Liu Guoqiang, Zhu Min, Robert Carnell, ING's, Carnell, Nomura Organizations: Service, Reuters, Mizuho Bank, Bloomberg, International Monetary Fund, Asia Pacific Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, Tianjin
China's exports tanked 12.4% in June from a year, Reuters reported, citing Chinese customs data. China's imports fell 6.8% in the same period. Both measures fell way short of economist expectations. After an initial spurt, China's economy has struggled to recover from three years of on-off COVID-19 lockdowns, pointing to a disappointing showing for the world's second-largest economy this year. China's economy grew 3% in 2022 and Beijing has set a 5% GDP growth target this year.
Persons: That's, Lu Daliang, Nomura, Robert Carnell, ING's Organizations: Reuters, Service, Administration of Customs, Administration, Customs, Asia Pacific Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Beijing
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNow is a good time for the Bank of Japan to make minor policy changes, economist saysRobert Carnell, regional head of research for Asia-Pacific at ING, discusses how monetary policy is shaping up in Australia and Japan.
Persons: Robert Carnell Organizations: Bank of Japan, ING Locations: Asia, Pacific, Australia, Japan
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell 5 cents or 0.1% to $69.81. While it would be Brent's first monthly gain for 2023, it would mark a second for WTI after a gain in April. Despite the probable monthly gain, on a quarterly basis, Brent looks set for a loss of about 6% while WTI appears headed for a decline of about 7%. The oil price gains on Friday were, however, capped by weak Chinese economic data and fears of higher interest rates. U.S. oil rig count data, an indicator of future supply, will be released later in the day.
Persons: Brent, WTI, Yeap, Rong, Novorossiisk, Robert Carnell, Jerome Powell, Arathy Somasekhar, Muyu Xu, Edwina Gibbs, Robert Birsel Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, U.S . Energy Information Administration, IG, ING, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: U.S, Saudi Arabia, That's, OPEC, Primorsk, Ust, Houston, Singapore
Shares rise as bank support emboldens investors
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The sale of assets in Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the regional lender that collapsed earlier this month, has helped prop up investor risk appetite. The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.3% while European shares (.STOXX) gained 0.92%, thanks in part to a rise in bank shares after UBS (UBSG.S) said it would rehire Sergio Ermotti to lead the company after its takeover of Credit Suisse (CSGN.S). The U.S. regional KBW bank index (.BKX) has fallen 3.3% in the last week, but is still above its recent six-week lows. Worries over inflation have prompted investors to reassess their expectations for monetary policy from a number of major central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. The dollar index, which measures the performance of the U.S. currency against six others, was roughly flat on the day at 102.46.
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